US: August 8, 2008


WASHINGTON - The Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than forecasters first predicted, with up to 10 hurricanes expected to form, the US government's top climate agency predicted on Thursday.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2008 season could produce between 14 and 18 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six of them being classified as "major" hurricanes.

In May, the agency forecast 12 to 16 named storms this season, with six to nine developing into hurricanes. Two to five could be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds above 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour).

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season has generated five tropical storms so far due to favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures and lingering effects from La Nina. The agency said the above-average activity made July the third most active on record dating back to 1886.

Bertha and Dolly each reached hurricane strength with winds in excess of 74 mph (119 kph) before fading over the open Atlantic and washing up on the shores of south Texas.

The latest, Tropical Storm Edouard, came ashore on the upper Texas coast on Tuesday just below hurricane strength.

"We're still expecting a lot of activity," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "One of the key things that's critical is the fact that a couple of named storms have formed in the deep tropics and usually that's a very strong indicator that the season will be above normal."

NOAA now projects an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season, up from 65 percent in May.

Earlier this week, the Colorado State University hurricane research team also raised its Atlantic forecast for this year saying it expected 17 tropical storms expected to form, and nine of them to strengthen into hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 tropical storms with six hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, NOAA said. The hurricane season officially started on June 1 and typically peaks between late August and mid-October.

A wild card going forward is the possible development of either La Nina or El Nino. La Nina generally results in conditions that favor hurricanes in the Atlantic while its opposite effect, El Nino, generates wind shear that makes it difficult for storms to stay together.

The most recent La Nina period has ended, but it's effects are still being seen.

Bell said both conditions were neutral over the next few months, but "after that it's a bit uncertain regarding the winter."

NOAA, university and other forecast groups have called for active seasons during the past few years only to have little storm development. Only one minor storm reached the United States during the 2007 season and it escaped any impact in 2006.

The US Gulf Coast, Mexico, Caribbean and Central American countries were battered during 2005. A record four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killing around 1,500 people on the US Gulf Coast and causing US$80 billion in damage. The 2004 season saw Florida struck by four powerful hurricanes. (Reporting by Christopher Doering; Editing by Marguerita Choy)


Story by Christopher Doering


REUTERS NEWS SERVICE