Location: New York
Author: Richard Schlesinger
Date: Monday, August 4, 2008
The electric car has been quietly rolling down the road for more than a hundred years, but it's never picked up much momentum. And once gas-powered cars sported mufflers and no longer frightened the neighbors out of their wits, electric cars lost their quiet advantage to the greater range and power of the internal combustion engine.
Sure, when the air in L.A. became something you could see and touch in the 1980s, fuel prices rose and California passed an aggressive clean-air mandate, it looked like electric vehicles might get a new lease on life. But the air cleared and gas prices fell, the mandate was revoked and electric cars all but disappeared.
But now that the polar ice caps are melting and gasoline is taking on the aura of a Cheval Blanc '53, the electric car is beginning to look a lot more attractive. All of the major domestic and foreign automakers have announced plans to begin to market some sort of electric vehicle and the only question is when they'll actually ramp up production. The implications are enormous for the world's environment, for the auto and petroleum industries, for consumers and, of course, for the electric utility industry.
Within five years, we'll begin to see meaningful penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. When we do, a key concern is what effect it will have on the grid.
Last year, a U.S. Department of Energy study concluded the system has enough excess capacity to recharge 75 percent of the light cars and trucks on the road today if they were electric. EPRI computer models conclude much the same. Based on likely economic and population growth between 2006 and 2030, incremental demand for electricity should grow by a little under 2,000 million megawatt-hours; of that, about 340 million megawatt-hours, or less than one-fifth, would be attributed to PHEVs and EVs. In other words, if capacity must increase approximately 50 percent over the next 25 years, the addition of electric cars won't matter one way or the other.
"Once we launch the technology we'll know what to expect and we'll have time to deal with anything we need to do," says Rick Tempchin, director of retail distribution policy at the Edison Electric Institute. "That's our business. The first vehicle to come to market will be a simple appliance and it will evolve from there."
Nancy Gioia, director, sustainable mobility, transportation and hybrid programs at Ford, thinks ramp-up to reasonable commercial production will take a minimum of five years and perhaps a little longer, and while some companies are predicting a shorter timeline, virtually no realistic scenario presents a threat to the grid.
Aligning Interests
The greatest immediate benefit to the utility industry will come in the form of increased efficiency, assuming the new generation of cars plug in during off-peak hours. And that's the most likely scenario.
Virtually all of the car companies are aiming for an all-electric range between 20 and 40 miles, whether from a hybrid or a pure electric. Because the average commute falls within that range, cars could conceivably go back and forth to work without using any gas and without needing to recharge during the day. Although most utilities operate in a regulated environment and don't necessarily realize increased profit from the sale of additional electrons, more efficient operation of installed capacity will benefit the bottom line, and increased use of off-peak capacity will dramatically increase overall efficiency.
Furthermore, increased off-peak usage will facilitate the shift to renewable energy. Energy from wind, for instance, tends to peak during the evening hours, so charging electric vehicles at night would be a perfect opportunity to boost the percentage of electricity generated by wind and help utilities meet their renewable mandates.
Obstacles persist. The most obvious is the battery. Lithium-ion batteries powering test vehicles produced by Ford, GM and Chrysler are built virtually by hand. The lithium-ion battery isn't the only option. A sodium metal halide battery used in small European electric cars has great promise for certain types of vehicles, such as the hybrid electric locomotive that GE is developing. But for various technical reasons, the consensus is that some form of lithium-ion battery will power cars in this country.
Nissan insists the battery issue will not prevent ramp up of retail production of the company's planned all-electric car by 2011. Similarly, GM's Tony Posawatz, line director for the Chevy Volt, is "very confident" his company will meet its 2011 timeline.
But Nancy Gioia of Ford is more cautious. "It's going to take a little bit of time and a chunk of change to go from the science lab to the pilot production phase to mass production of an efficient battery cell line of 10 million units a year." Among the issues she believes must be settled before commercial production becomes feasible are battery life, reliability and the ability to operate under broad temperature ranges.
More significant from the perspective of utility companies, plug-in cars will need to communicate intelligently with the grid, and that means smart meters. Plug-in cars can be charged from any outlet, whether 110 volts or 220 volts, although the higher voltage cuts recharging time in half. Smart meters will allow utilities to control demand and shape the load and charge customers incentive rates for charging off-peak.
"We're working closely with the Society of Automotive Engineers to develop codes and standards for how vehicles will communicate with the grid," says PG&E's environmental supervisor Efrain Ornelas. "Customers will be able to program when to charge and to look for specific pricing signals with the option of giving us direct control as part of a broad demand-response program."
It's about aligning the automotive sector with the electricity utility industry. It's a tough job. But if it succeeds, the relationship could be profitable for both groups.
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