NYMEX crude drops as US dollar surges to five-month high



New York (Platts)--8Aug2008

NYMEX front-month crude futures on the CME's Globex system were
$1.86/barrel lower at $118.16/b Friday as the US dollar surged to a five-month
high.

As a weak greenback was credited for pumping up commodity prices, a
resurgent US dollar is sending oil, base and precious metal prices lower.

The US Dollar Index on ICE was up 83.8 points at 75.285 after touching an
intra-session high of 75.465 during London trading. Most of the dollar's gains
were made against the so-called "commodity currencies," the Australian dollar
and the Canadian dollar.

"Price action lends support to the idea that a significant dollar low is
in place against the euro," foreign exchange strategists at Brown Brothers
Harriman said in a report. "The main driver continues to be evidence that the
financial crisis and economic downturn are becoming more evident in Japan and
Europe."

The inability of the front-month crude contract on NYMEX to break below
$117.11/b, Wednesday's low, given the magnitude of the rally in the US dollar
suggests traders were unwilling to aggressively short oil after the $30/barrel
downward correction seen the past three weeks.

Both heating oil and RBOB fell 7 cents earlier in the session as slowing
economies in the eurozone and Japan could have a knock-on effect on petroleum
demand growth.

Bullish undercurrents, however, remain in the oil markets.

Lifters of Azeri crude at the Turkish Mediterranean port Ceyhan have been
warned to expect a three-week delay to exports following an explosion earlier
this week on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com