IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (15-17 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
initially at high levels but dropped below threshold at 14/0240Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (15-16 August). A small
increase to quiet to unsettled is expected for the third day (17
August) in response to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 066
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales