US Weather Commentary

Before we jump into the meteorological expectations for August 2008, we must re-affirm 4 Science Principles and Summer Ground-rules, without which we risk traveling into the world of spin and science-fiction.

4 Fundamental Climate Truths:

1.) May patterns are mutually exclusive of the ensuing Summer Season [June-September].

2.) La Niña, QBO, MJO do NOT dictate Eastern U.S. Summer Temperatures.

3.) A negative-phased NAO [-NAO] actually supports South-Central and Mid-Atlantic Heat in the Summer.

4.) Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, and New York are in separate geographic climate zones, and should not be lumped together (especially if the ulterior motive is to deliberately dilute climate results.)

There has also been a lot of false rumors spreading about the 'down-trending' of Summer 2008, which couldn't be farther from climatological reality.  This is the manipulative equivalent of taking Dallas' 105°F readings the past 2 days and summarizing it with the headline "Dallas much cooler than Dubai!"

Reviewing how July has been hotter than June will provide useful guide-posts and insights regarding August 2008:

[Data through July 28th]

* Critical Days [>90°F] for the entire Nation East of the Rockies in July doubled/tripled their frequency compared to June

* Dallas has had 5 Days this July reaching 102°F-105°F, versus 0 such days in June.

* Houston has had 9 Days >98°F, versus only 6 such days in June.

* Oklahoma City has had 5 Days >100°F, versus 0 such days in June.

* Little Rock has had 3 Days >100°F, versus the warmest day in June was 93°F.

* The I-95 Megalopolis corridor from Boston to Washington D.C. was 3%-8% hotter than June.

* The Mid-Atlantic States tallied 7-9 consecutive days >90°F, double the 4 consecutive days in June.

* The Mid-Atlantic States experienced only 4 Below Normal Days all July, compared to an already impressive minimum of 6 Below Normal days in June.

* The New York City Tri-State Region registered 5% more CDD's during July's hottest 4-Day stretch compared to June.

How August 2008 could be even hotter than June & July according to our research:

1.) Hottest Month yet for entire Nation [Coast to Coast]

2.) Hottest Monthly Mean Temperature yet for several major hubs from the Plains to the Atlantic.

3.) Most CDD's in a multi-Day stretch yet for East Coast Hubs.

4.) 100°F reached by multiple East Coast locations (not just the lone reading from LaGuardia in June assisted by aircraft jet blasts).

August 2008 could also achieve a very significant and rare climatological achievement as a 'Heat Tri-Fecta' of sorts......

Hubs likely to be +1 Standard Deviation Hotter than Normal for every single month this Summer (which includes the  potential  for many of being hotter than August 2007):

Boston

Providence

Hartford

New York City

Philadelphia

Washington DC

New Orleans

Oklahoma City

Dallas

Houston

Hubs likely to be cooler than (blistering) August 2007 (but includes the August 2008 probability for being warmer than normal:

Chicago

St. Louis

Cincinnati

Memphis

Charlotte

Birmingham

Atlanta

WESTERN AUGUST 2008:

Northwest

The Pacific Northwest continues to contend with Temperate/Seasonable/Cool patterns this Summer, especially for coastal regions. Locations such as Seattle and Vancouver will even have some rain shower activity to close out July.  August 2008 looks to be more of the same, but this picture significantly transforms as we move East of the Cascades.  Drought is intensifying across the interior Northwest as well as the Central & Northern Rockies, and the Above Normal baton should be easily handed over from July to August.

Southwest

The significant 2008 Monsoon has really reined back temperatures in July across the desert Southwest from Palm Springs to to El Paso.  The Monsoonal moisture & cloud-cover still has some legs to it, and can be re-energized by East Pacific Tropical Storms, but eventually the Monsoonal pattern will wrap up during August.  At that point, the Southwest could gradually rebound to the more anomalous levels witnessed in June, re-joining the already hot patterns across the Central Rockies, Sierra Nevadas and California Valleys.

Coastal California, from San Diego to San Francisco, continues to have a Below Normal cool Summer under the grip of a very intense Sea Breeze flow pattern in 2008.  Infrequent Santa Ana Events have sparked a hot day here or there to sprout up, but generally the coastal zone will go by the beat of its own drummer throughout the Summer.

TROPICS:

2008 Atlantic tropical activity has gotten off to a fast start with 4 Named Storms and a Category 2 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  But now we will be entering the most active 3-Month stretch of the Season, with some important paradigms to keep in mind:

* Every Category 5 Hurricane in the GOM, in history, occurred after August 1st

* The average climatological date that the "D" Storm forms in Atlantic is August 22nd; The average climatological date that the "E" Storm forms in Atlantic is August 28th. So we are well ahead of pace, and Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly are the equivalent Tropical harbingers of snowstorms in November.

* NHC has a statistically disproportionate tendency to classify tropical storms on either Weekday Evenings [5 PM ET - 5 AM ET], or over Weekends [Friday Afternoon - Sunday Night].

*  Unfortunately, the fascination with "INVEST" entities continues to provide false alarms, as many short-term forecasters are unaware which such postings are merely a TEST (of model algorithms, etc.).  Furthermore, NHC Outlook "sentiment" has been utilized as a gauge for classification, which portends to many false-negatives and false-positives.  The aforementioned practices in 2008 have led to the writing-off of "94" (which went on to became a Category 2 Hurricane in the GOM), and most recently the 'scrutiny' of the "97" re-posting late last week, not realizing it was a demo.  There will undoubtedly be more tropical scenarios that deserve serious attention & focus this year, without the distractions of false alarms and wild goose invest chases.  We'll keep you informed, with your best barometer being whether we talk about it or do not.