US Weather Commentary

For Weather Risk Management, Derivative and Seasonal Planning Interests

Population-Weighted* U.S. Temperature Departure [June 08 - July 08]: 15.09% Warm

* Based on Heating Degree Day Weightings across the 25 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA's).

Running Weather Logs/Rankings of Historical Note for Summer 2008

Climate Scientists will usually reserve that term HISTORIC (Hot) if a Month/Season ends up being ranked in the Top-5 of that locations' historical record (or Top-10 if the climate records go back 100+ years).

Data through July 31st, 2008:

5th Hottest Summer All-Time:

   Richmond (hottest since 2005),

   Washington DC (hottest since 1994)

4th Hottest Summer All-Time:

   Raleigh (hottest since 1986)

   New York City (hottest since 1999),

3rd Hottest Summer All-Time:

   Philadelphia (hottest since 1994),

   Dallas (hottest since 1998),

   Houston (hottest since 1998)

All-Time Hottest Summer:

   Providence,

   Atlantic City

Summer 2008 in Historic Context:

While every Season is as unique as a snowflake, the only years in recent history that even come close to doing cumulative justice to the historic warm East Coast Summer of 2008, are a blend of 2005 + 1999.  The only years in recent history that even come close to doing cumulative justice to the historic warm Texas/South-Central Summer of 2008, are a blend of 2005 + 1998:

2008 CDD* Totals vs. other Historic Hot Summers:

* Official NCDC integer format CDD.

Location:       1999+2005:     2008:

Boston              505         513

New York City       770         801

Philadelphia        749         799

Washington D.C.     844         889

Richmond            780         866

Raleigh             851         916

Location:       1998+2005:     2008:

Oklahoma City      1,050       1,041

Dallas             1,324       1,405

San Antonio        1,271       1,259

Houston            1,235       1,219

Little Rock        1,120       1,027

In modern history, the (most opposite) ANTIPODES to the Eastern (I-95) U.S.: 2000 + 1976

In modern history, the (most opposite) ANTIPODES to the South-Central (Producing) U.S.: 2004 + 1976

Summer 2008 Chronology Summary:

Heat Thresholds & Expanse Ramp-Up in 2008.....

May: Last month of Spring provides expectedly cool & raw weather from the Southern California across to the Northeast, with some emerging Summer warmth for Texas and the deep South. This sets the stage for the dramatic May-to-Summer flip for the Eastern U.S., similar to 2005.

June: Anomalous Heat bursts onto the scene with South-Central and East Coast Heat Waves, taking the first step toward an historic Summer for these regions, and more benign Upper-Midwest.

July: 100°F Days become more plentiful across South-Central, and I-95 Megaloplis Corridor experiences Heat Wave 5% hotter than June Event and double the longevity [7-9 Days].  U.S. Population-weighted temperature departure comes in at 5.12% Hotter-than-Normal (versus 3.06% Cooler-than-Normal in July 2007).

August: Dallas [107°F], Houston [101°F], Oklahoma City [106°F], Little Rock [105°F], Shreveport [105°F], Omaha [101°F], Kansas City [97°F], Des Moines IA [95°F], Springfield IL [93°F], Nashville TN [97°F] all register their hottest temperature of the Summer during August, as 100°F readings expand to encompass 25% of Nation. August produces largest areal expanse of heat of the 2008 Summer, and the 2-3 hottest National CDD/Critical Days of the 2008 Summer.

Tropics Highlights and References:

* Tropical Storm EDOUARD formed on August 3rd, the 2nd Named Storm within the Gulf of Mexico this year. The average climatological date that the "E" Storm forms in Atlantic is August 28th. The average climatological date that the "F" Storm forms in Atlantic is September 10th.

* BERTHA tied Dennis (2005) for the earliest Major Hurricane [July 7th] since 1966.

* Every Category 5 Hurricane in the GOM, in history, occurred after August 1st