Dec. 18--CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- The Charleston Gazette
Coal's share of U.S. energy supply is expected to drop slightly over the
next two decades as regulators, investors and utilities drop plans for new
coal-fired power plants, the U.S. Department of Energy said this week.
DOE's Energy Information Administration has dropped its project of new coal
plants that would come online by 2030 from 104 gigawatts to 46 gigawatts,
the equivalent of nearly 100 typical new facilities not being built.
The DOE analysis assumes no new limits on greenhouse gas emissions. Instead,
the agency said, its report, "reflects the behavior of investors and
regulators who, in their investment evaluation process, are implicitly (or
explicitly) adding a cost to many proposed power plants that employ GHG-intensive
technologies."
The DOE outlined its projects in the 2009 edition of its Annual Energy
Outlook, released Wednesday.
DOE estimated coal's share of electrical generation would decline from 49
percent to 45 percent between 2007 and 2025, and then rebound slightly to 47
percent in 2030 as a small number of new coal plants are added.
Coal, oil and natural gas will provide 79 percent of total U.S. primary
energy supply requirements in 2030, down from an 85-percent share in 2007,
the DOE said.
For the first time in 20 years, the annual DOE report projects "virtually no
growth" in U.S. oil consumption. DOE said that reflects the combined effect
of new vehicle fuel economy standards, requirements for use of renewable
fuels, and an assumed rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers.
DOE predicted "rapid growth" of renewable energy of 3.3 percent per year,
brought on by renewable fuel standards enacted by many states.
But by 2030, renewables would still make up only 9 percent of U.S.
generation. The Union of Concerned Scientists noted that "there is
substantial room for improvements" and that DOE studies indicate renewable
energy could provide 20 to 25 percent of U.S. supply by 2020 to 2025,
without any increase in electricity prices.
DOE projected a slow in the growth of energy-sector carbon dioxide emissions
because of the reduction in projected additions of new coal0fired
conventional power plants. Energy-related C02 emissions grow at 0.3 percent
per year from 2007 to 2030, the DOE said. Still, electricity generation is
expected to remain the dominant source of emissions in 2030, with coal
plants the biggest single source of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. They will
represent 36 percent of the total in 2030, DOE said, which is more than the
entire transportation sector.
Reach Ken Ward Jr. at kward@wvgazette.com or 304-348-1702.
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