The International Energy Agency (IEA) drastically changed its assesment on the timing and likelihood of peak oil--based for the first time on hard figures, according to a story by George Monblot in the Guardian.

In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline in output from the world's existing oilfields of 3.7% a year--based admittedly on assumptions.

But the new report, published last month, projected a rate of decline of 6.7%, a number the Agency says is based on the first major study of the world's 800 largest oil fields.

In a video interview, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said for the first time he expects a "plateau" in global oil supplies around 2020. In addition he said total oil production from non-Opec countries will begin to decline within three or four years.

This is hugely significant, because nations around the world have been planning energy responses based on the IEA's numbers, which suddenly changed radically in one year's time.

In the report on peak oil commissioned by the US Department of Energy, oil analyst Robert L Hirsch said a 20 year mitigation program is needed before oil supplies peak, in order to avoid global economic meltdown. According to the IEA's new stance, we may not have that long.

Watch this important video report and read the related story at the link below.

Website: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/15/oil-peak-energy-iea