Momentum builds for energy independence
Converging conditions could stoke sustained federal push for alternative
fuels, greener cars
By Jim Tankersley | Washington Bureau
December 16, 2008
Oil industry
Critics say Bush administration energy policy too heavily favored the
oil industry and turned a blind eye to greenhouse gas emissions and the
threat of global climate change. (David J. Phillip / AP 2007 / December 16,
2008)
WASHINGTON — Breaking America's foreign-oil addiction was all the rage on
Capitol Hill when gas cost $4 a gallon. Now that it's under $2 and falling,
history suggests the enthusiasm for alternative fuels and more-efficient
cars will subside. It did that in the mid-1970s and again in the '80s and
'90s.
But this time could be different. A confluence of factors that didn't exist
or played lesser roles in previous "energy independence" efforts has
congressional leaders and environmental groups thinking that major action to
reduce oil imports and replace fossil fuels may still be possible. The new
elements in the equation include increasing public anxiety over global
warming, broad enthusiasm for making sure the coming stimulus package has a
"green" tinge and repeated vows for action from President-elect Barack
Obama.
Also this time, many consumers and oil company executives appear convinced
it won't be long before high gas prices come back to stay.
"In the past, when the price of oil and gas have dropped, it has caused us
to lose our focus" on energy independence, said Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.),
who heads the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. "I don't think
that'll happen this time."
Recent opinion polls and exit surveys from the November election back him
up, but perhaps nothing illustrates the change in attitudes better than a
survey of 52 high-level oil and gas executives released last week by the
auditing and consulting firm Deloitte.
It found that less than a quarter of those executives expect oil and gas to
be Americans' cheapest energy source in 25 years, and three-quarters say
it's a good idea for the country to turn away from fossil fuels for
transportation.
That's a "sea shift" for the industry, said Joseph Stanislaw, a Deloitte
senior adviser and longtime oil and gas analyst. "People are saying, prices
go up and prices go down," he said, "but something's broken here, and we've
got to fix it."
Americans have worried about their dependence on foreign oil since the early
1970s, when Arab oil producers stunned the developed world by halting oil
shipments during the presidency of Richard Nixon. The result was soaring
energy prices, long lines at gas stations and an "energy shock" to the
economy it took years to recover from.
Today the United States imports nearly two-thirds its oil, a 50 percent
increase from the Nixon years, even though every president in that time has
pledged to wean the nation from foreign energy.
Obama, in announcing his energy policy team Monday, noted how presidents for
decades had failed to curb the nation's oil addiction.
"This time has to be different," Obama said. "This time we cannot fail. Nor
can we be lulled into complacency just because, for now, the price of gas
has fallen below $4 a gallon."
Oil prices hit record heights over the summer, fueled in part by explosive
demand in developing nations such as China and India. Both Obama and his GOP
opponent, John McCain, promised ambitious plans to reduce oil use, and
Americans cut back on driving.
Then the global economy slipped rapidly into recession, energy demand ebbed
and prices sank again.
Instead of backing off his alternative energy push, though, Obama doubled
down. Since the November election he has promised to make so-called green
projects a cornerstone of the economic stimulus plan that will anchor his
early agenda. And he repeatedly pledged swift action to curb greenhouse gas
emissions and fight climate change, an issue heavily wrapped in the politics
of oil.
Obama's concern over global warming is increasingly shared by voters. That's
a big difference from the 1970s, said Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter, a Democrat
who has urged Obama to focus heavily on energy alternatives. "We weren't
paying attention to climate policy the way we are now," Ritter said.
Climate change has become "part and parcel" of federal energy policy, said
Andy Karsner, a former assistant energy secretary in the Bush administration
who is now at the non-profit Council on Competitiveness. "You will see
climate, as an issue, embedded in the ongoing energy debate," he said.
Many Republicans warn that the economic downturn could make any climate
change legislation—which analysts project would raise household costs—a
tough sell.
Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.), who sits on two key energy committees,
cautioned Obama to focus on plans to increase efficiency and boost
alternative fuels, which would combat warming and oil dependence. "We ought
to be looking for strategies that give us a dual benefit," he said.
Environmentalists say the opposite: that lower gas prices weaken the
argument against a cap-and-trade plan for greenhouse gas emissions.
Lawmakers and analysts agree that even with cheaper gasoline, cash-strapped
Americans aren't likely to immediately splurge on SUVs or resume the driving
habits they learned to curb over the summer. They also agree that prices
aren't likely to stay low for long. Once the world economy speeds up, oil
demand almost certainly will surge again. As the International Energy Agency
declared in a November report, "The era of cheap oil is over."