Obama's Oil Slide
December 19, 2008

Ken Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief
Recall the windfall profits tax? No, not the one implemented as part of the
Jimmy Carter presidential administration. It's the one proposed by candidate
Barack Obama earlier in the year -- the one that would make Big Oil pay a
tax on their "excessive" profits and the one that would shift that money
over to ordinary folks to pay energy bills.
Well, it died. President-elect Obama had a change of heart. When he made
that proposal in the spring, the price of oil was well over $100 a barrel
and Americans were pretty peeved. Their investment portfolios were taking a
big hit while they read about Exxon reporting quarterly profits in the
multi-billions.
Now the price of a barrel of oil is relatively cheap, less than $50. One of
Obama's campaign aides told the Houston Chronicle that $80 a barrel was the
threshold. Anything more than that and the president-elect would send the
foot soldiers over to Capitol Hill to lobby anew. Anything less than that
and the oil companies would be safe.
Government's job is to assess taxes and then to distribute that revenue to
where it is needed. Such policies, of course, are dynamic and must adjust
with the times. Each entity is responsible for paying its "fair" share --
amounts that are offset by tax breaks and subsidies so as to motivate
certain types of behavior. The problem with declaring profits extreme in a
market-based economy is where exactly to draw the line.
It's one thing to tax an industry once on its profits. But then to hit 'em
again may be a bit much. Would anyone step up -- other than lawmakers from
Texas and Louisiana -- to bail out Big Oil if prices sunk to the single
digits?
When the original windfall profits tax was instituted in 1980, it had been
intended to recover the "excessive" profits made by the oil companies as
part of the previous Middle Eastern oil embargo. When the levy was tossed
out in 1988, it had been considered a failure given that it raised 80
percent less revenue than originally anticipated and it had discouraged
domestic oil production and encouraged foreign imports.
"A windfall profits tax is bad policy at any price, and the history books
are filled with examples to prove it," says Thomas Pyle, president of the
Institute for Energy Research. "The president-elect's decision to reverse
course on imposing this Carter-era burden on those who explore for and
produce American energy is a heartening development -- both for consumers
and an economy struggling to claw its way out of recession. And although the
president-elect's spokesman was eager to cite oil's recent drop in price as
the reason for this shift in policy, I hope the real explanation can be
traced back to the millions of American jobs that would be lost under such a
tax, and the billions of barrels of oil we'd lose the ability to produce as
a result of it."
Luxury Tax
None of this is to say that Big Oil is above scrutiny. After all, the five
leading companies last year made about $120 billion in profits. There's been
talk on the Hill about eliminating some of its tax breaks so that those
revenues could promote green energy. That's one of those ever-evolving
policy realignments -- not a tax on top of tax.
That could make sense as the global energy paradigm shifts so as to minimize
carbon footprints. Moreover, clean tech industries are one of the bright
spots in the American economy, prov

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