IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind data indicated the continuation of a high speed
solar wind stream with peak velocities around 500 km/s. However,
velocity showed a steady decline after 0700Z and was around 380 km/s
at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with chance for an isolated
active period for the first day (05 December). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected for the second day (06 December) and generally
quiet levels are expected for the third day (07 December).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 070
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/20/05
Minor storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales