IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1009 (S25W73) produced a
C1 flare today at 0925Z as well as a few B-class flares. The region
continues to be a small, relatively simple spot group as it
approaches the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low in general. There is, however, a chance for an isolated C-class
flare during the first day (12 December) as Region 1009 rotates
around the solar limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be initially quiet tomorrow but an increase to unsettled
with a chance for active levels is expected late on the first day
(12 December) lasting partway through the second day (13 December)
as a high speed solar wind stream rotates into geoeffective
position. Activity is expected to be generally quiet on the third
day (14 December).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 070
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales