IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. Please note: the observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux for 21
December was 068.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. At about 22/1600Z, ACE
measured increases in temperature, density and wind velocity, all
indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. During this period, solar
wind speed increased to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
IMF varied north and south about +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecasted to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
23 December. On 24 - 25 December, effects from the coronal hole are
expected to wane, and as a result, the geomagnetic field will be
mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 068
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales