Poznan, Poland (Platts)--10Dec2008

The US is the key to unlocking the deadlock in UN climate change talks
that seek to secure a new deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, the head of the
International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

"The important thing everybody is talking about is how the United States
comes [to UN climate negotiations] under the new administration. That's the
biggest element for the final conclusion of [the December 2009 talks in]
Copenhagen," IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka told Platts on the sidelines
of the UN climate change talks in Poznan, Poland.

Tanaka said that until the new administration of US President-elect
Barack Obama takes office in January, it is unlikely significant progress on a
post-Kyoto deal would be forthcoming. That means the Poznan talks, which run
from December 1-12, must focus on hammering out a broad negotiating framework
for the 2009 meeting in Copenhagen, with little clarity on what the US might
bring to the table next year.

"I cannot really tell you what they are aiming at. Probably this is still
the roadway to Copenhagen, so it's not necessarily that they are aiming to
achieve something very concrete [in Poznan]," he said.

That leaves little time for the incoming Obama administration to come up
with real progress on a cap-and-trade bill or firm greenhouse gas emissions
reduction commitments, to use as bargaining chips at the 2009 talks.

Copenhagen 2009 is seen as the deadline for replacing Kyoto, which
expires in 2012, because a new treaty is likely to take at least two years to
ratify.

"The US position is that they have to enact domestically first and then
come to the international negotiating table. So can they deliver as such, or
can they take a different path? That is a big question for the success for
Copenhagen and we don't have much time," warned Tanaka.

Speaking at the Poznan talks, US congressional representatives on Tuesday
suggested that a fully enacted federal cap-and-trade bill is not a
prerequisite to the US taking part in the Copenhagen negotiations.

STRONG WILLINGNESS

But even without concrete US measures emerging during 2009, Copenhagen
could still give rise to a new agreement, as willingness to engage on climate
change by the incoming Obama administration is clear, Tanaka said.

"I think a US proposal of 80% reduction [in US emissions by 2050] is
quite ambitious and we feel that Obama's government is aiming at our 450
[parts per million] stabilization course," he said, in reference to the IEA?s
recommended target for global atmospheric CO2 concentration. Current CO2
levels are just above 380 ppm and rising.

"Of course it is quite challenging, and the devil is in the detail. We
have to wait and see how the real implementation happens. But certainly we
feel a strong willingness by the new government [to take action]," he said.

"Certainly the US is key. If the US comes up with a very forthcoming
proposal or position, then everything could move. If the US moves, China and
India must move, so that's the key element," said Tanaka.

"Another message we try to deliver at this Poznan meeting is that
back-tracking on climate measures is happening in some countries," he said.
"Yes, it is understandable that the economic crisis is the first priority for
many governments--I fully understand that. But if they are making big economic
stimulus packages, why don't they make it a more long-term sustainable
objective?" the IEA chief said.

"It means spending money on energy efficiency measures for existing
housing, investing in stringent efficiency standards for new houses, public
transportation infrastructure or more efficient appliances. Also more
renewable energy infrastructure--there are many areas [where] for
sustainability's sake, we need investment," he added.