US Weather Commentary

-Mild weather to bring 'traditional' reprieve from Texas to New England for final week of 2008.....

- Arctic Regime for Northern Hubs looks to resume again during  first week of 2009.....

- AO/WP/EP Tele-connections poised to plummet for New Year; -NAO means more Snow...

"Blast Bullets":

* Chicago has spent 30 consecutive hours below 0°F [air temperature, not counting wind-chill]

* All 48 States have sub-Freezing temperatures this morning, with Houston experiencing freezing rain.

* Boston and northern NYC Suburbs totaled 12-16" of Snow over entire Weekend [Fri-Sun].

Some key items to anticipate, transitioning from NOV-DEC to JAN:

1.) As a "Book-Ended" Winter, the historic 2, 4, 6 and 8 week anomalies (Cold & Snow) we're witnessing in NOV-DEC (and will again MAR-APR) will abate slightly in JAN for much of the Nation.

2.) Despite this aforementioned "relativity", many hubs East of the Plains (especially in th North) could easily achieve their coldest January since 2004 {so be wary of extrapolating very-late December weather into January and of course stay clear of random, "blow-torch" or any Analogs}.

3.) Considering snow-pack (latent heat of Sublimation in 2,833 Joules/gram) extracts 13% more energy from the lower atmosphere than even wet ground (latent heat of Evaporation is 2,500 Joules/gram), you end up with a huge hemispheric parameter force largely ignored.  With significant National Snow-Pack coverage, this surface flux parameter will continue to confound computer model projections beyond even just 3-5 Days as we enter the New Year.

4.) The PNA Teleconnection is a late-bloomer when it comes to its Winter influence (not sign or magnitude), and now it has entered the scene acting to moderate the Southeast/South via ridging - but not as widespread as last year. Historic achievements for the South such as Charlotte NC & Columbia SC having their coldest November since 1976, and metro New Orleans receiving 5" of snow, will probably take a little bit of a back back-seat to Northern accomplishments, in early 2009.

Have a safe and happy Holiday Season!

Re-Included Sit-Down Q & A with Chief Meteorologist

Cautionary Note: Temperatures, Heating Degree Days, Snowfall are objective variables, but their impact on certain industries, and their correlation to different industries, can certainly vary with the state of the economy.  Proper adjustments should be made this year for those utilizing weather results to derive secondary and tertiary variables (demand, Bcfs, etc.) versus those utilizing weather results at face value (HDDs, Growing Degree Days, Critical Day tallies).

Q: If you had to pick just 1 word to describe the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Season, what would it be?

A: A tie between Northern and Long.

Q: And if you were able to pick a phrase?

A: Book-Ended: Intense Early- and Late-Winter Season anomalies.

Q: When anomalous warmth in the (southern or western) U.S. has people's attention, they shouldn't overlook anomalous cold elsewhere in......?

A: ......Canada.

Q: Before the 2007-2008 Winter you were asked to pick the geographic epicenter (or bulls-eye) of Season Total HDD Anomalies, and you selected the North-Central U.S. (which went on to experience their coldest Winter in 7 years).  Where did you pick the geographic epicenter of total HDD anomalies this Winter?

A: Cincinnati/Ohio Valley.  The main focal zone should encompass the 'diamond' outlined by Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, with our research bulls-eye shifted farther East and a little farther South from last year.

Q: What do you think will be the most SURPRISING Winter Season outcome compared to prevailing or consensus thought?

A: Considering Winters typically get going in January, early Winters in December and very early Winters in November, I believe people may have been surprised when we emphasized in the Summer the intense Winter anomalies we anticipated this year during November-December.  The "Book-Ended" Winter Season philosophy which our research concluded of course emphasizes the anomalies within November-December and within March-April, but even a numerical abatement could easily yield say the coldest January in 5 years for many East-Half U.S. hubs.

Q: What do you think will be the most FRUSTRATING aspect of this Winter Season?

A: Once again, computer models' fluctuations/fickleness and commercial services' increasing reliance on them. Upstream (Pacific/Alaskan) patterns and surface fluxes (from abnormally high snow-pack) will be major factors again this Winter, and these are variables handled the most poorly by computer models.  If models can be off by many degrees for 3-5 Day forecasts, 8-14 Day output is going to give folks even more headaches.

Q: So why the over-reliance on models?

A: It's convenient, it's quick, and it provides pretty pictures.  Most commercial services are mass-disseminating forecasts to hundreds of recipients and don't have the time to go over each city with a fine-tooth comb.  Sitting down with pencil & paper to calculate the fluid-dynamics of short-waves boundaries, the thermodynamics of snow-pack surface fluxes, etc., is critically important, but also takes a lot time and physics analysis.

Q: What do you think will be the most CONCERNING aspect of this Winter Season?

A: There are still some pockets of significant Drought across the Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, southern Texas and interior California carried over from the Summer, and they may not get much relief this Winter. This in turn could lead to a potentially more severe drought situation by the time the 2009 heat Season is about to start.  Tangentially, dry ground is a good thermodynamic radiator so when these regions do receive occasional cold waves, the freeze consequences could be that much more intense for Agricultural/Citrus entities.

Q: What do you think will be the most CONFUSING aspect of this Winter Season?

A: Anyone who walks down the path of following weekly ENSO updates or Analog years will undoubtedly be confused, because it is not legitimate climate science. Weekly ENSO updates create a "stay tuned" reliance on  forecasts and Analog years create a "fog & mirrors" attribution to any weather result (you'll notice that by the end of a Season, 48 of the past 50 years are referenced at one point or another!).  Especially this year, with the ENSO Status quite Neutral [current ONI is only -0.1], the danger of La Niña exaggerations and the under-valuing of key Hemispheric Tele-connections, is greater than ever.

Q: What advice do you have for people tracking cumulative weather?

A: Don't miss the Forest for the Trees. Under cold regimes, a sort of 'Conservation of Degree Days' applies.  If you see that an approaching week might be trending 25 HDD's milder than you originally thought, there is a good chance it's because the previous or following week is coming in with an extra 25 HDD's than predicted by models.  Same goes for a Half-Month interval (think January 2005), or entire Months (think January to February 2007). For example, when the Ohio Valley commenced this November on a very mild note - many who were reliant on models were caught off guard by the region experiencing its coldest November this Decade. Similarly again, when the Ohio Valley commenced December on an extremely cold pace - many who were reliant on models and extrapolation are now caught off guard by what will be a cold but not extremely cold December.  Meanwhile, the Ohio Valley was always going to be a few degrees (solidly) below normal for the November-December period, but was never the extreme levels that the first few days - or model output varying wildly - may have insinuated.

Q: Contrasted to last Winter, where will some of the largest contrasts be found?

A:  Last Winter was a unique animal in that it yielded more of a NET North vs. South demarcation with the North even colder than their normal cold and the South even warmer than their normal warmth - which established a tremendous latitudinal thermal gradient.  This Winter is (1) commencing earlier than last year, (2) shifting the net HDD surplus bulls-eye farther East than last year, and (3) will take on more of the classic East vs. West demarcation for Seasonal results.  This places the Appalachians States and East Coast States much closer to our Bulls-Eye and they will correspondingly be much more under the gun of cold and snow outbreaks.  Conversely, the Southwest U.S. (i.e. Phoenix) and much of the Rockies (i.e. Salt Lake City) will be more removed from cold focal points than last year and subsequently will tally fewer HDDs over the course of this Winter Season.

Q: Your Unsung Weather Variable?

A:  Snow will be a huge U.S. story again this Winter.  The albedo, conductive and radiative properties of snowfall/snow-pack are an enormously powerful 1st-order term in thermodynamics.  It is often undervalued and misrepresented in modeling.  For the Northern-Half of the Nation: Where snowfall/snow-pack is present (or nearby), temperatures will routinely come in colder than expected on the chilly days and no warm-up as much on the milder days; Where snowfall/snow-pack is absent (or nearby), cold days will routinely come in warmer than expected on the mild days and not chill off a much on the cooler days.