PARIS, France.
The supply of energy must double by 2050 to meet global demand, according
to the policy scenario of the World Energy Congress.
A series of 20 workshops were held around the world from 2005 to 2007, with
input from 400 industry, government, academia, NGO and trade groups who
discussed the need for energy that is “accessible, available and acceptable”
by 2020, 2035 and 2050. Seven specialist groups provided data on climate
change to power generation, energy price drivers and electricity consumption
patterns, transport and finance.
"It is a myth that the task of meeting the world’s energy needs while
addressing climate change is simply too expensive and too daunting," it
concludes. Developing Africa is principally concerned with increasing access
to energy while developed Europe places more emphasis on energy
acceptability in its policymaking.
"Greater government involvement will also help develop sustainable energy
but will have less impact, and developing countries will get the most
benefit from it, since government support is needed in countries with a less
developed private sector," it notes.
"Modern renewable energies, such as wind, solar and biomass, are valuable
alternatives for supplying electricity to rural populations," it explains.
"Wind power is becoming increasingly competitive in Africa (as elsewhere),
and certain applications of solar thermal energy for water heating (solar
water heaters), water pumping, cooking, and crop drying, in addition to
photovoltaic applications, are being introduced gradually."
"There are high hopes for the diffusion of renewable energy sources with
little environmental burden, such as hydropower, geothermal energy, new
renewable energy, and in some countries, nuclear power," it continues.
"However, it is difficult for renewable energy to compete on par with fossil
resources for base energy supplies due to higher costs. Renewable and other
non-conventional sources of energy must be encouraged, but developing
countries are not obsessed with them."
Renewables (including hydropower) continue to play a growing role and
deployment of electricity generation from wind and biomass is expected
around the world, playing key roles in all regions. Development of
hydropower will also rise, "recognising its role as a cost-effective
provider of electricity," but development of hydropower is constrained by
environmental challenges (displacement of people, methane production,
competition for fertile land), particularly where large dams are required.
"Energy from renewable sources will have an important impact on markets
during the time period, but will not dominate any market," it predicts. "As
consumer expectations grow for more renewables, supply-demand tensions rise
as demand outstrips supply."
A doubling of energy supplies can be achieved by 2050 with cleaner and more
efficient technologies, and choices of new energy technologies and sources
will be driven by higher energy prices, setting a global carbon price high
enough to affect choices without crimping economic growth, and
considerations for higher standards for clean energy production. "The
world’s energy mix will include more supplies of hydroelectricity, nuclear
power with satisfactory planning for spent fuel, biofuels, biomass and other
renewables."
"There are high hopes for the diffusion of renewable energy sources with
little environmental burden, such as hydropower, geothermal energy, and new
renewable energy (solar, wind, and biomass)," it notes. "Their share in
primary energy production is anticipated to increase from 2% in 2005 to
around 10% in 2050. However, collectively, they are not going to rank on a
par with fossil resources as pillars of the base energy supply, due to their
continuing high supply cost. New renewable sources of energy have to be
encouraged, but developing countries cannot afford to be obsessed with it."
"The participants in the study express great hope for renewable energies,
but reasonable expectations," it concludes. "Starting from a low base
number, these sources will make an important impact but will not dominate
any markets in the time period up to 2050."
"With government engagement and encouragement, everyone sees renewable
energy demand increasing, along with tension due to inability to keep up
with demand, and as a response to public concerns about the effects of
climate change," it notes. "There is increasing supply–demand tension in all
periods in all regions for renewable energy. This reflects that consumers
would like much more renewable energy and have it sooner, but concerns about
costs, siting of wind turbines, and the net carbon footprint of renewables
will keep the tension high."
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