Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air
Force.
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind data from ACE
show a marked increase in velocity, density, magnetic field and
temperature. These observations are consistent with the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions due
to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec-30 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 072
Predicted 30 Dec-30 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-30 Dec 008/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
For current space weather conditions please refer to: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |