Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Feb 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred. The

visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV

electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the

period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled during days 1 - 2 (08 - 09 Feb).

Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on

day 3 (10 Feb) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Feb 071

Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 07 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 007/008-010/012-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/25/40

Minor storm 01/01/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/30/40

Minor storm 01/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/01