IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to the
continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of
approximately 760 km/s at 11/0825Z. At the end of the summary
period wind speed had declined to below 680 km/s. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period (12-14 February). Isolated periods of active conditions at
middle latitudes and minor storm levels at high latitudes are
possible all three days, due to continued effects of the high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 072
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 012/012-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales