Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Feb 14 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible

disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled due to a

geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed

remains in excess of 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux

at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled, with possible isolated active

conditions, 15 - 16 February due to the continued influence of the

coronal hole high speed stream. On 17 February conditions are

expected to abate to quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 14 Feb 071

Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 072/072/072

90 Day Mean 14 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 008/010-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 35/35/30

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 40/40/35

Minor storm 15/15/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05