Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Feb 25 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z

to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 983 (S01W39),

currently classified as an Axx alpha group, was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux

at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet on day one (26 February). Quiet to unsettled

levels are expected on day two (27 February). Unsettled to active

levels are expected on day three (28 February) with isolated minor

storm conditions at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole

becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 25 Feb 071

Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 25 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 005/005-007/008-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/15

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/15/25

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/10