Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Feb 28 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z

to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm

conditions at high latitudes. Real-time solar wind observations are

consistent with signatures of a coronal hole high-speed stream. The

velocity, magnetic field and temperature all showed an increase at

about 28/1330Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly unsettled with periods of active conditions

for 29 February, and at unsettled levels for 01 March due to the

influence of the high speed stream. Activity is expected to be

predominately quiet on 02 March as the stream subsides somewhat.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 28 Feb 070

Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 28 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 015/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 012/012-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/15/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/20/10

Minor storm 15/10/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01