| Can a Drop in the Dollar Actually Be Healthy For the 
    Economy? 
 
 
 Location: Boston
 Author: Jeannette Harrison-Sullivan
 Date: Wednesday, January 9, 2008
 A panel of investment professionals from Eaton Vance Corp., the Boston-based 
    investment management firm, said they see a silver lining in the current 
    market outlook labeled as “gloomy” by many. Duncan W. Richardson, chief 
    equity investment officer at Eaton Vance moderated a panel of Eaton Vance 
    portfolio managers including Robert B. MacIntosh, chief economist and 
    co-director of municipal investments; Michael R. Mach, manager of Eaton 
    Vance’s large-cap value portfolios and a co-manager of several equity 
    income-oriented funds and Scott H. Page, head of the company’s bank loan 
    group.
 
 With the current credit market environment providing a volatile backdrop for 
    their remarks, the panel addressed a wide range of questions on the minds of 
    investors, including how they can take advantage of market weakness, whether 
    the U.S. can avoid a recession in 2008, why investors need not worry about 
    making a choice between “growth” or “value” stocks and the impact of current 
    market conditions on bank loan products.
 
 Richardson encouraged investors to “take a deep breath and remember their 
    ABCs of investing.” “Crises generally set market lows, not highs,” said 
    Richardson . “The current credit crisis is well-documented and a torrent of 
    cash has flowed into money market funds. Investors will be well served in 
    2008 by adopting an ABC (anything but cash) investment philosophy. They 
    should seek assets that are being overly discounted by panicky sellers.” He 
    said that cash may make investors feel comfortable, but it is likely to be 
    “trash” (yielding less than three percent) soon.
 
 Chief Economist Robert MacIntosh agreed that many investors are now nervous. 
    “A number of things are adding up to make investors feel the economy has a 
    lot going against it. The markets are concerned that the economy has 
    weakened because of all the financial stress we see out there.” MacIntosh 
    added that, “However, the significant depreciation of the U.S. dollar over 
    the past year is healthy for our economy as our export sector is being 
    significantly stimulated. While the higher cost of oil is adversely 
    affecting consumer spending, our growing export sector will make up for much 
    of this drop in consumption.”
 
 In addition, although MacIntosh recognizes the far reaching effect of the 
    subprime crisis, he said that he does not believe the overall economy is 
    headed for a recession. “The current housing crisis is unlikely to drag the 
    overall economy into a recession,” said MacIntosh, who sees potential harm 
    in excessive government involvement. “Intervention by the government and 
    politicians ‘to ease’ the financial hardship of individual borrowers might 
    serve to prolong the resolution of the housing crisis. This could have even 
    more long-term negative implications for the credit markets.”
 
 The Eaton Vance panel included both a growth investor (Richardson) and a 
    value-oriented investor (Mach), but both managers were in agreement that the 
    environment should continue to favor large cap companies. “We think that 
    some style shifts that started in 2007 could easily extend through 2008 and 
    beyond,” said Michael Mach. “In today’s market, it’s a horse race between 
    growth and value.”
 
 Despite today’s tumultuous environment, all the Eaton Vance panelists 
    concurred that investors should recognize the continuing appeal of quality 
    assets. “Fear, flows and fundamentals all argue that large cap quality U.S. 
    equities offer a compelling risk/return prospect for long-term investors,” 
    said Richardson . “Large cap U.S. equities are one of the most ignored major 
    asset class on the planet. They could move back into favor if the dollar 
    stabilizes and a global slowdown causes even more volatility in riskier 
    assets and investment styles.”
 
 Eaton Vance also offered investors some constructive ideas in areas of the 
    equity and fixed income markets that have experienced collateral damage from 
    the credit crisis, such as municipal bonds and bank loans. Scott Page, 
    manager of Eaton Vance’s bank loan funds, outlined a compelling case that 
    the recent decline in prices for floating rate, secured leveraged loans 
    signals an attractive investment opportunity for bank loan products.
 
 Page described how the recent risk-aversion contagion in mortgage and 
    residential real estate credit markets spread to the leveraged loan market. 
    This, coupled with record loan supply caused loan market prices to drop on 
    average from slightly above par to approximately 95 cents.
 
 “The silver lining in this price correction,” Page said, “is that it has 
    built in a significant cushion to absorb credit defaults caused by a real 
    pull-back or recession, were one to occur. That is, a significant downturn 
    is already priced into the market whether or not it occurs. This is good 
    value. The floating-rate nature of bank loans is an added bonus, which 
    protects NAVs in the event of inflation and rising rates.”
 
 In summary, despite anticipating higher volatility this year, the panel of 
    investment professionals predicted that investors will have significant 
    opportunities in 2008. The panel said more conservative investors will have 
    a wide choice of high quality equity and fixed income assets from which to 
    choose.
   
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