Can a Drop in the Dollar Actually Be Healthy For the
Economy?
Location: Boston
Author: Jeannette Harrison-Sullivan
Date: Wednesday, January 9, 2008
A panel of investment professionals from Eaton Vance Corp., the Boston-based
investment management firm, said they see a silver lining in the current
market outlook labeled as “gloomy” by many. Duncan W. Richardson, chief
equity investment officer at Eaton Vance moderated a panel of Eaton Vance
portfolio managers including Robert B. MacIntosh, chief economist and
co-director of municipal investments; Michael R. Mach, manager of Eaton
Vance’s large-cap value portfolios and a co-manager of several equity
income-oriented funds and Scott H. Page, head of the company’s bank loan
group.
With the current credit market environment providing a volatile backdrop for
their remarks, the panel addressed a wide range of questions on the minds of
investors, including how they can take advantage of market weakness, whether
the U.S. can avoid a recession in 2008, why investors need not worry about
making a choice between “growth” or “value” stocks and the impact of current
market conditions on bank loan products.
Richardson encouraged investors to “take a deep breath and remember their
ABCs of investing.” “Crises generally set market lows, not highs,” said
Richardson . “The current credit crisis is well-documented and a torrent of
cash has flowed into money market funds. Investors will be well served in
2008 by adopting an ABC (anything but cash) investment philosophy. They
should seek assets that are being overly discounted by panicky sellers.” He
said that cash may make investors feel comfortable, but it is likely to be
“trash” (yielding less than three percent) soon.
Chief Economist Robert MacIntosh agreed that many investors are now nervous.
“A number of things are adding up to make investors feel the economy has a
lot going against it. The markets are concerned that the economy has
weakened because of all the financial stress we see out there.” MacIntosh
added that, “However, the significant depreciation of the U.S. dollar over
the past year is healthy for our economy as our export sector is being
significantly stimulated. While the higher cost of oil is adversely
affecting consumer spending, our growing export sector will make up for much
of this drop in consumption.”
In addition, although MacIntosh recognizes the far reaching effect of the
subprime crisis, he said that he does not believe the overall economy is
headed for a recession. “The current housing crisis is unlikely to drag the
overall economy into a recession,” said MacIntosh, who sees potential harm
in excessive government involvement. “Intervention by the government and
politicians ‘to ease’ the financial hardship of individual borrowers might
serve to prolong the resolution of the housing crisis. This could have even
more long-term negative implications for the credit markets.”
The Eaton Vance panel included both a growth investor (Richardson) and a
value-oriented investor (Mach), but both managers were in agreement that the
environment should continue to favor large cap companies. “We think that
some style shifts that started in 2007 could easily extend through 2008 and
beyond,” said Michael Mach. “In today’s market, it’s a horse race between
growth and value.”
Despite today’s tumultuous environment, all the Eaton Vance panelists
concurred that investors should recognize the continuing appeal of quality
assets. “Fear, flows and fundamentals all argue that large cap quality U.S.
equities offer a compelling risk/return prospect for long-term investors,”
said Richardson . “Large cap U.S. equities are one of the most ignored major
asset class on the planet. They could move back into favor if the dollar
stabilizes and a global slowdown causes even more volatility in riskier
assets and investment styles.”
Eaton Vance also offered investors some constructive ideas in areas of the
equity and fixed income markets that have experienced collateral damage from
the credit crisis, such as municipal bonds and bank loans. Scott Page,
manager of Eaton Vance’s bank loan funds, outlined a compelling case that
the recent decline in prices for floating rate, secured leveraged loans
signals an attractive investment opportunity for bank loan products.
Page described how the recent risk-aversion contagion in mortgage and
residential real estate credit markets spread to the leveraged loan market.
This, coupled with record loan supply caused loan market prices to drop on
average from slightly above par to approximately 95 cents.
“The silver lining in this price correction,” Page said, “is that it has
built in a significant cushion to absorb credit defaults caused by a real
pull-back or recession, were one to occur. That is, a significant downturn
is already priced into the market whether or not it occurs. This is good
value. The floating-rate nature of bank loans is an added bonus, which
protects NAVs in the event of inflation and rising rates.”
In summary, despite anticipating higher volatility this year, the panel of
investment professionals predicted that investors will have significant
opportunities in 2008. The panel said more conservative investors will have
a wide choice of high quality equity and fixed income assets from which to
choose.
To subscribe or visit go to:
http://www.riskcenter.com
|