Crude futures stabilize after selling spree last week



London (Platts)--14Jan2008

Global crude futures stabilized in early European trading Monday after
the selling spree in the last three trading sessions.

The market is still in corrective mode following the $100/barrel highs at
the beginning of the year, and an early upswing of around 30 cents was wiped
out as prices turned lower again, according to sources.

At 11:02 London time, front-month February ICE Brent futures were 7 cents
higher at $91.14/b ahead of the contract's expiry on Wednesday, while the
February contract for NYMEX WTI was 12 cents lower at $92.57/b.

"It is not really clear what is moving the crude futures markets this
morning," a London-based broker said.

"It is a bit weird that gold and other metals are roofing and crude is
not following and is ignoring potentially bullish news... especially keeping
in mind the big draws in US crude stocks last week. Funds should be looking
for safe havens away from equities and credit-based instruments like
commodities... but as the dollar is still getting hammered they should buy
crude and not gold," he said.

"Nigeria conflict was ignored, massive draws in US crude stocks ignored,
funds increasing long positions every week... ignored," the broker added.

Turning to the potentially bullish news, an oil tanker explosion in the
Nigerian oil city of Port Harcourt killed at least 30 people Friday. Nigeria's
main rebel group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta,
claimed responsibility for the attack, the second such incident in January in
Port Harcourt.

Meanwhile, another supportive factor in the background is the growing
tension between the US and Iran. US President George W. Bush accused Iran on
Sunday of threatening security around the world by backing militants and urged
his Gulf Arab allies to confront the issue.

On a technical note, analysts pointed out that the crude complex, and
especially WTI, is still in a corrective mode, resulting in lower prices.

"WTI is still in a technical corrective phase but with a long weekend
ahead [the floor is closed next Monday for Martin Luther King Day] we would
expect that the weakness of the Dollar Index and the strength in other
commodity groups will prevent WTI to break below the bottom of the previous
$100/b correction," Petromatrix analysts said in a report Monday.

Product futures were mixed, with February ICE gasoil losing $2.25 to
$795.25/mt, tracking late-Friday losses in crude futures.

In contrast, February contracts on NYMEX for heating oil and RBOB
recovered, up 1.1 cents and 0.62 cent to $2.5469/gallon and $2.3265/gal,
respectively.

--Verena Peternell, verena_peternell@platts.com