Is Germany next in line for a nuclear rethink?

European and national emissions reduction targets along with concerns over security of supply have sparked a public debate in Germany over whether the country should cancel or modify its nuclear phase-out law, which only came into effect in 2002.

Back then, Germany's previous government passed a law to prevent the construction of new nuclear plants and limit existing ones to an average life-span of 32 years, based on remaining allocated capacity.

Adding further spice to the already emotional debate is Germany's government which is itself split on the issue. The leading coalition partner CDU/CSU under chancellor Angela Merkel, intends to at least extend the life-span of Germany's twelve remaining nuclear power plants until new technologies such as clean coal or renewables are broadly available. Other leading CDU/CSU party officials have come out in favor of new nuclear plants.

The junior partner SPD, by contrast, is strictly against any such plans, arguing that nuclear power is dangerous, unreliable and outdated. Instead, the social democrats, who together with Greens formed the previous administration that brought in the nuclear phase-out, want to reach emissions reduction goals through more renewables, lower consumption and increased energy efficiency.

The conservative CDU/CSU hopes to put these plans through parliament by forming a coalition with its traditional partner, the pro-nuclear liberals of the FDP. The SPD, in return, intends to reach its goals by teaming-up with its own preferred partner, the Green Party.

With a general election scheduled in 2009 and both coalition partners wanting a political divorce, it is safe to say that both parties--together with their respective preferred partners--will make energy and climate change a core issue in their respective election campaigns.

The SPD and Green parties are also against installing new coal-fired capacity to replace around 20 GW of nuclear capacity, leaving renewables alone to plug the gap, which is a tall order.

However, given that clean coal is not yet a proven technology, and keeping in mind that nuclear newbuilds in Germany are politically impossible at the moment, the CDU/CSU's and FDP's ideas also seem destined to failure in meeting Germany's climate targets.

Could the answer be that Germany needs more of everything: extend nuclear lifespans, build modern coal-plants that could be upgraded to CCS, invest in renewables and import natural gas and LNG from wherever we can?

Henning Gloystein, Associate Editor, European Power Daily