Platts' chief African correspondent, Cape Town-based Jacinta Moran, has
produced her latest estimate on just how much oil is offline in Nigeria as a
result of various civil strife. It's an important number -- and rarely
defined by others -- because it's constantly cited as a reason why oil sits
firmly above $90 for WTI.
Among her most recent findings:
--Platts is estimating that 708,000 b/d is still shut in due to community
unrest and operational problems such as pipeline damage etc. In August, we
estimated that the outages were up to 978,000 b/d, marking a significant
improvement.
--Some of that improvement in supply has come from Shell's steady effort to
increase production from the Forcados fields, which today stands at 160,000
b/d and is expected to rise to 180,000 b/d in early February and 200,000 b/d
in March, earlier than expected. An extra cargo has been assigned for the
February program. Industry sources are expecting three 950,000-barrel
cargoes and one 300,000-barrel cargo to be exported in February compared to
the ten or more before the shutdown. In August, we reported Forcados output
as 46,000 b/d. But even with the recent gains, Lost Forcados production has
averaged 202,000 b/d since February 2006.
--Shell's deepwater Bonga field, which came on stream in November 2005 now
accounts for over 70% of Shell s production, which Jacinta estimates to be
482,000 b/d. In 2003, it was almost 1million b/d.
--ExxonMobil is now the country s leading producer at around 755,000 b/d.
--Platts' most recent full-month estimate of Nigerian production is for
November, at 2.2 million b/d.
--Chevron s production is currently at around 390,000 b/d, down from 490,000
b/d in 2003. The company is struggling to restore production, largely due to
the natural decline in some of its fields in the Escravos area.
--Also in Nigeria, the conflict in the Niger Delta appears to have taken on
a new dimension as MEND factions, now so frustrated with the lack of
progress in Abuja and the recent attack by the Joint Task Force in Port
Harcourt, have put aside their differences and grouped together to get ready
for a major raid on an oil facility near the Rivers state oil capital. The
attack is believed to be imminent, and many fear a military reprisal, which
would exacerbate tensions and lead to even more violence.
Posted by John Kingston on January 10, 2008
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