IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 980 (S07E69) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 01/1537Z. As the region rotates onto the east limb,
its initial classification is a simple Axx alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 980.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 079
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 082/085/087
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales