IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with some isolated active
periods during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained
elevated throughout the period and showed characteristics consistent
with a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the
first day (07 January). Conditions are expected to decline to quiet
to unsettled for the second day (08 January) and should be
predominantly quiet for the third day (09 January) as the high speed
stream is expected to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 079
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 012/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/25/15
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales