IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the
influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at ACE reached 750 km/s during the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels with isolated storm
periods at high latitudes on Days 1 and 2 (15-16 Jan). The high
speed stream is expected to depart on Day 3 (17 Jan) and activity
levels should diminish to quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 076
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 075/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 014/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales