Location: New York
Author: Weather 2000, Inc.
Date: Thursday, January 10, 2008
What goes up, must come down........
* Severe weather outbreaks endemic of clash between colder/drier air masses
and unseasonably mild/moist air masses across Nation, and heralding the
resuming of more Wintery themes.
* Series of Continental Polar Air masses are scheduled to gradually drop
down from Canada over the next 2 weeks, each one a little more thermally
potent and geographically expansive than its predecessor. They will pivot
around a mean Trough axis that will be positively tilted from Hudson Bay
across to the Southern Plains.
* Climate developments which are not key components to this Winter, but
which we will keep our eyes peeled for, include: the tapping of colder
Arctic air masses, development potential of any Blocking patterns, and any
drought-assisted Southeastern freezes.
* Amplitude of weekly swings remain phenomenally large, but National
contrasts to recent years subtly accrue. The specific 7 week stretch
extending from the start of December through mid-January will have amassed
U.S. HDD totals which we have not seen in several years. So place both
short-range volatility and Seasonal outcomes in their proper perspectives.
* Keep in mind that any of the cold waves we have witnessed the past 6
weeks, are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the long Winter
Season still ahead of us. Note that within the past 12 years, 7 of the 8
coldest (Population/Gas weighted) November-December weeks were set way back
in 1995-2000, but 6 of the 9 coldest January-February weeks were more
recently set in 2002-2007 (in addition to some contemporary records in March
& April).
Pacific Coast gets bombarded with storms (mostly northern California to
southern British Columbia at this point), and mild air surges north across
East-Half of Nation as Canadian stores rebuild.
Keep in mind that for about half the Nation this mild surge has, is, and
will be par for the course this Winter. And for the North, if you thought
December epitomized this Winter's volatility: this month Chicago literally
went from 0°F to 60°F in 3 days! (before it chills off again later this
week).
Some people have asked for quantitative comparisons between this current
mild spell, and the major "January Thaws" across the North that took place
to start the New Year over the past 2 years:
CHICAGO, Days >40°F
January 2006 & 2007: 9-13 Days.
January 2008: 6 Days (projected).
BOSTON, Days >50°F
January 2006 & 2007: 7-9 Days.
January 2008: 3 Days (projected).
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