North American weather roller-coaster still has months left to the ride......

If you were reluctant to go against the grain of conventional Winter Outlook thoughts back in the Autumn, than perhaps half-way through January the moral of the 2007-2008 Winter we have been driving home, is settling in: the one thing that actually is consistent, is the ongoing lack of consistency.

When mild weather in November got people spooked about a warm December, winter cold & snow made its mark on the Upper-Mid-West and New England. When moderation over the Holidays gave people Deja Vu, Winter responded with an Arctic wave reaching down to Florida to kick off the new year. When temperatures elevated into the 60's across the North last week folks expected another multiple-week January thaw (similar to 2005, 2006 and 2007), and Winter responded by re-loading with more Polar & Arctic air to deliver down from Canada.

Regardless of what Government long-range Outlooks may depict as Decadal trends, regardless of what amplified solutions computer models may misinterpret, and regardless of what exciting patterns short-term forecasters may exaggerate, the bottom line this Winter is:

1.) Rest assured, waves of Polar & Arctic Air will continue to return, impacting the the Northern States each Winter month, with the Northwest, Mid-West (epicenter) and Northeast quadrants all getting in on the act this Season.

2.) Rest assured, without North Atlantic Blocking (and such blocking was always going to be rare this Season), the cold air masses will come in the form rippled waves (usually accompanied by cyclogenesis), will not be locked-in, and will take breaks to rebuild/recharge in Canada, time and again.

3.) Temperature Volatility will psychologically mask the long-term reality, and when taking into account National HDD's + Wind-Chill + Snow/Ice events + regional focii, we'll disjointedly approach a Top-5 cumulative energy-weather Season (since 1994), over the next 10-12 weeks.

Forecasting the Forecast:

Since CPC 6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks are usually a snap-shot of the center day of that time period, they should moderate for the dates when the upcoming cold wave has finished. But yet another cold wave will be on its heels, so it won't be long until they swing back to a colder-themed depiction.

Re-included for pertinence:

* Temperature anomalies across Nation (in attached forecast tables) should quantitatively speak for themselves regarding upcoming patterns. But here are some more qualitative pointers/reminders to help you navigate through some of the superfluousness and "wish-casting" that went on by the main services:

* Due mostly to the absence of North Atlantic Blocking which we warned about, New England and especially the Mid-Atlantic will have a much more variable and less severe pattern (over the next 2 weeks) compared to the magnanimous service hype put forth the past several days. This will still likely translate into the coldest and most prolonged period of below normal temperatures (non-consecutive) these regions have experienced yet this Winter, but the bar was raised so high by giddy short-term forecasters that cold results could be perceived as "disappointing".

* The Mid-West conversely could have the most "surprising" cold results, with the intensity of Arctic Air likely being underestimated by even the most aggressive models, as they have during most of the outbreaks this Winter. Combined with the stealth variable of Wind-Chill (not incorporated in air temperature or HDD values), Well-Below-Zero apparent temperatures will have a tremendous impact on big Mid-Western Cities the likes of which have not been experienced in these parts during the 2nd-Half of January since 2004.

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