Washington (Platts)--27Jun2008

The US is unlikely to agree to make a binding commitment to greenhouse
gas reductions under a post-Kyoto Protocol agreement set to be discussed in
late 2009, industry and political panelists said on a conference call Friday.

To be held in Copenhagen, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
conference will be the last meeting on a government level before Kyoto expires
in 2012. In preparation for the conference, G8 countries will hold climate
talks in Japan in early July aimed at reaching a consensus about cutting their
GHG emissions.

The 2009 timing will prove difficult for the US, with a new president
starting out in January 2009 and other issues such as Iraq and domestic
economic issues grabbing attention away from climate, the panelists said.

Mark Helmke, senior staff member on the US Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, said that an agreement on a new climate program "architecture"
about what countries will do is feasible, but that getting a new Kyoto treaty
ratified by the US Senate will be difficult.

Another factor is that a US GHG cap-and-trade bill will come up again for
review in 2009, but it is unlikely to pass Congress before the end of next
year, he said.

As a result, the US president would be unable to negotiate on what
reductions the country should agree upon at Copenhagen and get US Senate
ratification of a treaty, he said.

"The president in Copenhagen will pledge to something in 2010 [as a
result]....They can make a promise under an agreement of some sort," he said.

The US Senate has so far failed to ratify Kyoto largely over objections
that large GHG emitters, China and India, have also refused to sign onto the
protocol and make reductions.

Jennifer Morgan, director of climate and energy security at London-based
sustainable development non-profit E3G, said that the Copenhagen effort will
depend on "how high up on [his] foreign policy agenda [the new president] sees
climate."

While President Bush did not make it a priority, the new president will
be swayed by Americans wanting it to be a high priority, she said.

"There is [also] tremendous global pressure going into Copenhagen," she
said. "If the US has not come up with a full position by [2009], the president
has to really consider other foreign policy objectives that he wants to
achieve with his allies."

--Christine Cordner, christine_cordner@platts.com