Department of Energy Sees 20% Wind Energy by 2030

The report considered a scenario for reaching 20 percent wind electricity by 2030, contrasted to a scenario in which no new U.S. wind power capacity was installed. It examined costs, major impacts and challenges associated with the 20 percent wind scenario. The report finds that the United States possesses affordable wind energy resources far in excess of those needed to enable a 20 percent generation. The study also investigated requirements and outcomes in the areas of technology, manufacturing, transmission and integration, markets, environment and siting. The report was created by 50 organizations and about 90 people working on it for about 18 months.

The 20 Percent Wind Scenario

To implement the 20 percent Wind Scenario, new wind power installations would increase to more than 16,000 megawatts per year by 2018, and continue at that rate through 2030, the report says.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency 2007 Outlook estimates that electricity demand will grow by 39 percent from 2005 to 2030. This would reach 5.8 billion megawatt-hours. To reach the 20 percent goal, U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach 300 gigawatts. Currently, about 16 gigawatts are installed, and that after a 45 percent increase in capacity during 2007.

Economic Impacts

The report concludes that in the decade from 2020 to 2030, the U.S. wind industry could:

• Support roughly 500,000 jobs in the U.S., with an annual average of more than 150,000 workers directly employed by the wind industry;

   

• Support more than 100,000 jobs in associated industries (e.g., accountants, lawyers, steel workers, and electrical manufacturing);

   

• Support more than 200,000 jobs through economic expansion based on local spending;

   

• Increase annual property tax revenues to more than $1.5 billion by 2030; and

   

• Increase annual payments to rural landowners to more than $600 million in 2030.

Energy Security and Price Stability

Adding wind-generated electricity at stable prices not subject to market volatility will diversify the nation’s energy portfolio by reducing reliance on foreign sources of natural gas. In this scenario, wind would supply enough energy to displace about 50 percent of electric utility natural gas consumption by 2030. This amounts to an 11 percent reduction in natural gas across all industries. Also, coal consumption would be reduced by 18percent. In addition, electric utilities are learning how to accommodate wind’s variability while maintaining system reliability, the study says.

There are environmental benefits from increased wind penetration. Approximately 40 percent of total U.S. CO2 emissions come from power generation facilities. Since substantial amounts of coal and natural gas fuels would be displaced, the 20 percent Wind Scenario could reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 825 million metric tons – 25 percent of the CO2 emissions from the nation’s electric sector in the no-new-wind scenario. This reduction could nearly level projected growth in CO2 emissions from electricity generation.

The report examines siting issues and effects that an increase in wind power facilities may have on compatible land uses, water use, aesthetics, and wildlife habitats. Wind energy avoids many of the undesirable environmental impacts from other forms of electricity production, such as impacts from fuel mining, transport and waste management.

Unlike fossil-fuel and nuclear generation, which use significant quantities of water for power plant cooling, wind power generation consumes no water during operations. Generating 20 percent of U.S. electricity from wind would reduce water consumption in the electric sector in 2030 by 17 percent.

Incremental Cost of the 20percent Wind Scenario

Costs incurred by the 20 percent Wind Scenario exceed those of the no-new-wind scenario by about 2 percent. Although the 20 percent wind scenario would incur higher initial capital costs, a large portion of those costs would be offset by $155 billion in lower fuel expenditures. The estimated incremental investment would be $43 billion (net-present-value basis; 2006$). This corresponds to about 0.06¢/kWh of total generation, or about 50¢ per month for the average household. These monetary costs do not reflect other potential offsetting positive impacts.

Major challenges along the 20 percent Wind Scenario path include:

• Investment in the nation’s transmission system is needed so that the electricity generated is delivered to urban centers that need the increased supply;

   

• Developing larger electric load balancing areas, in tandem with better regional planning, are needed so that regions can depend on a diversity of generation sources, including wind power;

   

• Significant growth is needed in the manufacturing supply chain, providing jobs and remedying the current shortage in parts for wind turbines;

   

• Continued reduction in wind capital cost and improvement in turbine performance through technology advancement and improved manufacturing capabilities is needed; and

   

• Addressing potential concerns about local siting, wildlife, and environmental issues within the context of generating electricity is needed.