London (Platts)--15Jul2008

OPEC said Tuesday it expected world oil demand to average 87.71 million
b/d in 2009, up 900,000 b/d from its downwardly revised call of 86.81 million
b/d for 2008 but representing a decline of 100,000 b/d from estimated growth
this year as a slowing economy and high retail fuel costs take their toll.

For 2008, OPEC shaved its previous forecast by 70,000 b/d to 86.81
million b/d.

The oil producer group said in its Monthly Oil Market Report for July
that it expected oil demand in non-OECD countries to grow by 1.2 million b/d
next year, accounting for all the projected demand growth.

"The economic slowdown and high pump prices in OECD [countries] have been
impacting oil demand and will continue to do so next year," OPEC said.

The report, released by OPEC's Vienna secretariat, said slowing demand
for gasoline, particularly in the United States, along with an easing in
distillate markets and expensive crude had exerted pressure on global refining
economics.

It warned that if these trends continued, refiners might be encouraged to
cut throughputs or begin seasonal maintenance earlier than usual, which would
result in lower crude demand.

"This could lead to further crude stock-builds in the coming months,
putting pressure on crude prices in the latter part of the year," OPEC said.
"However, these perceptions may change if supply disruptions occur either in
OPEC or non-OPEC producers over the next months. The main wild card for the
product market in the near future would be possible refinery outages due to a
potential active hurricane season in the US Gulf Coast."