Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Jul 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.

The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (July 08 - 09).

Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (10

July) with active levels possible at high latitudes due to a

corotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole

high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Jul 066

Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 066/066/066

90 Day Mean 07 Jul 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/05/10

Minor storm 01/01/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/10/25

Minor storm 01/01/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01