Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Jul 17 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z

to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained

spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain

at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind

speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated a gradual

decrease in velocities from about 530 km/s at the beginning of the

period, to near 460 km/s by forecast issue time. The greater than 2

MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again

today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18 - 20 July).

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 17 Jul 065

Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 066/066/066

90 Day Mean 17 Jul 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 004/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/10/10

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01