IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1000 (S12W18) is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active
period from 0900-1200Z. The solar wind data at ACE indicated the
passage of a solar sector boundary. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day one (22 July), unsettled to
active on day two (23 July), and mostly unsettled on day three (24
July). The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 066
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/50/25
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales