In the vote today, the US House of Representatives failed to advance a bill that would order the release of 70 million barrels of light, sweet crude oil held in the SPR, after they were unable to get a two-thirds majority needed to pass the measure. The House vote, which was 268-157 in favor, was not enough to advance the legislation because the vote occurred under the House's "suspension calendar" where legislation is immediately brought up on the floor without amendments. Under that provision, it required a two-thirds majority to pass. The White House had threathened to veto the measure even if it did pass.

The bill would have required a release of 20 million barrels in the first 60 days after enactment and the release, on average, of 500,000 b/d over six months. The SPR currently has 704 million barrels of oil in storage and is about 97% full.

But let's review the center's statement on the history of prices and SPR releases, because the numbers are there in black and white.

--The George H.W. Bush analogy is, to be charitable, the biggest stretch of all.

Bush released strategic reserves in January 1991 on the morning after the air forces of the allies seeking to drive Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait made it quite clear that they would prevail. Most importantly, there were no Iraqi bombs raining down on Saudi oil facilities in response, as had been feared.

The morning after, all indications pointed toward a sharply lower opening on NYMEX that was going to be a steep enough decline that it would halt trading, under a provision the NYMEX established prior to the war to stop what it thought might be panic-driven buying. Instead, it was used to halt panic-driven selling by shutting the Merc down for a short period of time.

In the middle of the pre-opening preparations -- there was no off-hours trading then -- Bush 41 announced the release of strategic stocks. It really didn't make much sense by then; the price was clearly going to collapse anyway, and it was obvious the oil facilities of other countries were not going to be attacked. It was a classic case of shutting the barn door after the horse got out. But it was clear the administration had made the decision that at the start of hostilities, the SPR was going to be tapped, and it was. Platts' WTI assessment the day before the bombing was a bit more than $32. A day later, the day of the SPR release, it was close to $21.

So yes, prices did decline after the SPR release, and they stayed lower for years, not months. But the SPR had nothing to do with that. They were elevated before then because of fears of a protracted conflict that would reduce supplies. Once that fear dissipated, they were coming down, SPR release or not.

--The Bill Clinton release. Critics of the SPR point to this as the most cynical use of the reserve in its history. Six to seven weeks before Election Day, with George W. Bush and Al Gore locked in a tight battle, and Americans screaming about crude prices that had topped $30/b, Bill Clinton announced the US would exchange 30-million barrels of crude from the SPR for a one-month period, to be paid back over several months.

There was an immediate impact on price. The Platts assessment for WTI around those dates hovered near $31, which was a few dollars less than the days prior to the announcement. But by October 23, just three weeks after the announcement, Platts assessed WTI in excess of $35. By November 20, it was over $36. It did plummet below $30 by the beginning of December, but that's a long way from the decline "within days" that Mr. Weiss refers to, and there aren't many economists who would argue that the release contributed to that later decline, especially given that the economy was slowing at that point following the end of the technology bubble.

--The Bush 43 release: In late June 2006, a closure of a ship channel in Louisiana created the possibility of a shutdown of two refineries in Louisiana. One was owned by ConocoPhillips; the other by Citgo. The size of the loan: 750,000 barrels. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman made the announcement on June 28. We assessed WTI that day at $72.15. It was over $75 by July 5. It was over $76 by July 13. It slipped below $70 for an extended period of time -- almost 9 months -- by early September. We doubt, three months later, that the decline all the way to less than $60 was because of an additional 750,000 barrels put on the market by the SPR, not in a market that back then was consuming 84 million b/d. Regardless, prices did not decline "within days," and the oil was released in reaction to a logistical bottleneck, not as part of an effort to drive prices lower.

We have an extensive data base of prices here at Platts, which the Center is more than willing to purchase. It looks like it would get put to good use.