July 16, 2008
Signposts to a Clean-Energy Future
Two new reports shine a light on potential high-growth pathways for the
U.S.
Wind power is the largest emerging clean-energy source on the planet. It is starting to reach significant penetration in an increasing number of markets, representing approximately 20 percent of Denmark's total electricity generation, 10 percent of Spain's, and more than 7 percent of Germany's. In the U.S., Iowa and Minnesota now get approximately 5 percent of their electricity from the wind, New Mexico around 4 percent and Oregon approximately 3.5 percent. Even more remarkable, wind represented 30 percent of new electricity generating capacity installed in the U.S. in 2007.
Solar power, which still lags significantly behind wind as a percent of
total electricity generation and new installations, is attracting
investors, governments, utilities and others for its potential to scale
like earlier high-tech industries (think computer chips and cell phones).
Germany, which dominates the world in solar deployment, now gets around
six tenths of one percent of its electricity from the sun. In the U.S.,
the number is closer to just one tenth of one percent.
Against the backdrop of renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements, emerging carbon regulations and energy supply challenges, a range of stakeholders are now asking: What would it take for solar and wind to both contribute significantly to U.S. electricity generation? Two recently published reports (one written by Clean Edge), outline how these two emerging energy sectors combined could provide up to 30 percent of U.S. electricity generation sometime between 2025 and 2030. Both reports highlight steps that need to be taken to make such targets a reality. On the wind front, a Department of Energy (DOE) report, entitled "20 Percent Wind Energy by 2030," identifies requirements to achieve the goal of 20 percent wind by 2030, including reducing the cost of wind technologies, citing new transmission infrastructure, and enhancing domestic manufacturing capability. The report presents an in-depth analysis of the potential for wind in the U.S. and outlines a potential scenario to boost wind electric generation from its current production of 16.8 gigawatts (GW) to 304 GW by 2030. The analysis concludes that:
Another study written by my firm, Clean Edge, along with green-economy nonprofit Co-op America, makes the case that solar power is emerging as a cost-effective hedge against fossil fuels and is likely to reach cost parity with retail-electricity rates in most regions of the U.S. in less than a decade. The Utility Solar Assessment (USA) Study) provides a comprehensive roadmap for utilities, solar companies, and regulators to reach 10 percent solar in the U.S. by 2025. Action items outlined in the report include:
Solar power also offers a number of other advantages over conventional energy sources. Among them, the ability to deliver energy at or near the point of use, zero fuel costs, minimal maintenance requirements and zero carbon-based source emissions. Both of these reports reflect an important new reality: Solar and wind are capable of providing an increasingly significant portion of the U.S.'s total electricity generation needs. Pair them with enhanced transmission lines, the smart grid and conservation and efficiency, and we could transform utility markets in the U.S. and abroad. "To dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance our energy security, clean power generation at the gigawatt-scale will be necessary, and will require us to take a comprehensive approach...," said Andy Karsner, DOE Assistant Secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy for the U.S. Department of Energy. We couldn't agree more. The future of solar and wind lies in their massive build-out — and will require the active participation of utilities, regulators and companies. The two reports outlined in this column provide important pathways to make this vision a reality. Ron Pernick is co-founder and managing director of Clean Edge, Inc., coauthor of The Clean Tech Revolution, and Sustainability Fellow at Portland State University's School of Business. To subscribe or visit go to: http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com |