China Top Carbon Emitter, Beijing Under Pressure
CHINA: June 16, 2008
BEIJING - China's ranking as top emitter of the main planet-warming gas,
carbon dioxide, seemed confirmed by a Dutch report on Friday, putting more
pressure on Beijing to come up with their own figures, experts said.
The finding from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) is
the third published in English by either European or US-based researchers to
show China at the top.
It says China's CO2 emissions raced 14 percent ahead of the total emitted by
the United States last year.
One of the report's biggest effects will be to put more pressure on the
central government to speed up the process of tallying its own total
greenhouse gas emissions.
"No matter how many of these kind of reports are released, you still need
the confirmation from China to really confirm the story," said Greenpeace
China's Beijing-based climate and energy campaign manager Ailun Yang.
Even without China's confirmation, Friday's report represented the consensus
view, said Isabel Hilton, editor of bilingual Mandarin-English China
Dialogue website, which publishes reports about China's environment.
The delay in Beijing's confirmation reflected reluctance.
"As the Chinese saying goes, the tall tree attracts the wind. The government
is conscious that being the largest emitter by volume, along with a vigorous
programme of building coal-fired power stations, risks putting China at a
moral disadvantage in international diplomacy," said Hilton.
UNFAIR
The Dutch report ranked India, another fast-developing Asian giant with a
population of more than one billion, as the third biggest national emitter,
at eight percent of the global total.
Pressure is building to include big developing countries in global targets
ahead of a UN-led meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, which is expected to forge
a broader pact to fight greenhouse gas emissions to replace the Kyoto
Protocol after 2012.
But experts, including the Dutch report writers, say that the third major
academic analysis to place China top does not mean that the fast-developing
nation is a global bad guy.
"To put things in perspective you should also look at national circumstances
like emissions per capita and GDP (income) per capita, which is much smaller
in the case of China," said PBL's senior scientist Jos Olivier.
As superficially attractive as national rankings are, the picture they give
is somewhat misleading, said Gavin Edwards, head of Greenpeace
International's climate campaign.
"We live in a globalised world with global trade. Take any random major
corporation which has large outlets in the West, you'll find large
manufacturing bases in places like China. So it's very hard to decide who
those emissions belong to."
Announced just as a UN-sponsored meeting on emissions cuts winds down in
Bonn, and a few weeks before a major G8 meeting on the issue in Japan, the
ranking might further heat up global discussions.
"(China's ranking) will certainly increase pressure for developing countries
to join a post-Kyoto regime," said Hilton.
"The developed countries are responsible for the past. The developing
countries, as the ratings show, hold the world's climate future in their
hands."
BIGGER PICTURE
China accounted for two-thirds of last year's global 3.1 percent rise in
carbon emissions, from consumption of fossil fuels and cement production,
but China's per-capita emissions still lagged far behind those of the United
States, at 5.1 and 19.4 tonnes per person respectively, Friday's report
said.
While understandable, China's delays in facing the numbers could prove
problematic for Beijing, said Elizabeth Economy, Deputy Director of Asia
Studies and Fellow for China at US-based Council for Foreign Relations.
"China has said that it will consider aspirational targets for reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, but not hard targets until 2050, when it
anticipates that its per-capita emissions may well match those of the US
today," Economy said.
"The world, of course, cannot afford such a delay." (Additional reporting by
Gerard Wynn in London; Editing by Emma Graham-Harrison, Gerard Wynn and
David Fogarty)
Story by Gillian Murdoch
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
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