IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind signatures indicating a co-rotating interaction region
followed by the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream were
observed by the ACE spacecraft. Wind speed reached a maximum of
about 700 km/s at 15/1610Z. The interplanetary magnetic field Bz
component ranged between +/- 13 nT during the early part of the
summary period; for the remainder of the period Bz ranged between
+/-6 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (16 June),
with a chance for minor storm conditions possible due to the coronal
hole high speed stream. On days two and three (17 and 18 June)
expect activity levels to decrease to mostly unsettled levels with a
chance for active periods as the high speed stream continues to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 067
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales