The good news, the bad and the ugly
Starting with the good news first: it seems there is an expectation
amongst a greater group of oil-executives that the price of oil will
go down substantially later this year. (see article in ‘Features’). A
good 55% even believes that the price will go below $ 100 per barrel,
which by then could be an almost 50 % reduction. What can we say,
other than that we hope the wisdom and foresight of these executives
will be accurate, and that we will be given a pause in the relentless
driving up of the prices?
The bad news comes from the article "Perhaps 60 % of today’s oil
price is pure speculation" (also ‘Features) that describes how the
speculation works and how it has become possible that so much money
can be used to speculate on the oil-price (and other commodities)
without any oversight or control even being possible. The article
describes also how the infrastructure for this has been and is being
created, which does not bode well for the future prices, as there
seems to be no limit to the insatiability of ‘the market’ and those
facilitating it.
The good news in this is, that it is now said long enough and ever
more clearly by OPEC-dignitaries and other high-level executives, that
there is enough oil in the market and there is therefore no reason for
such high prices, other than speculation, in which some start to make
the link with the dollar going down and oil-prices going up. Hopefully
one day in the future the market will return to its fundamentals, and
then we may see lower prices. Unless of course another major crisis is
taking place…
The ugly was in two articles, of which one from a seemingly
innocent angle. In the article ‘Winds of change blow in Tanzania’
(Company News Africa) we learn about the 2 MW windmills that will be
placed in a valley in central Tanzania. It tells about the people
living there and staring at pictures of the windmills, all impressed,
and saying that soon the people will find out as they will live next
to them. It apparently just happens that a few huts were under the
‘footprint’ of the wind-park, and these people will soon find out how
it is to live in the midst of gigantic windmills.
My thought was immediately: is this the modern day-version, the
‘renewable-energy-version’ of Nigeria? There, for 50 years, some white
people came, dug some holes, laid pipes, put up flares and since then
the people living there have not had a dark night without ‘jet-like’
noise again. Is the modern version that gigantic windmills are being
set up where-ever there is wind, whether there happen to live some
people or not? And will it take 50 years before people will start to
protest? Time will tell.
Another little ‘ugly’ was in a news-item of a small US oil company
that has signed an E&P-contract in Nicaragua for a block 100 km
offshore (see Company News Latin America). It noted that the company
would pay 15 % royalties on oil drilled and 30 % of net profits earned
in the country. If we consider that the production will be 100 km
offshore, it bodes the question how much Nicaragua will effectively
get from the resources that are pumped out from her soil.
Next to these highlighted issues, there is another 400+ other
articles in this Update, of which we hope you enjoy some, for your
interest and education.
Rest me to say that I will be around at the World Petroleum
Congress in Madrid (June 29 – July 3) and if you wish to meet, you are
most welcome to send a e-mail.
After my speech in Athens I had the honour to be invited as
guest-speaker at the banquet of the World Renewable Energy Congress,
taking place in Glasgow (July 19 – 25). If you are around and want to
meet: send an e-mail.
Other responses are also always welcome at Alexander@gas-oil-power.com
Take care,
Alexander
Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections at
www.gasandoil.com |