Washington (Platts)--11Jun2008

US House of Representatives Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee Chairman
Rick Boucher said Wednesday his prospects have dimmed for moving a carbon
control bill through his chamber this year, but the next Congress undeniably
will act under a more aggressive White House.

Speaking at a propane industry conference in Washington, the Democrat who
represents coal-rich Virginia said the lack of Republican cooperation has
reduced his prospects of pushing a climate bill through the House to "below
50%." Some lawmakers consider those prospects much weaker.

Boucher said, however, that the odds of the next Congress passing an
"aggressive" carbon cap-and-trade bill are 80% or better. Congress is going to
be very receptive to that aggressive bill," he said.

That largely is because the next president -- whether it be Republican
John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama -- is expected to send a greenhouse gas
mandate to Congress, which will have a larger number of Democrats, within his
first few months in office, Boucher said.

To secure a measure with industry input, Boucher -- who was once a
carbon-control skeptic -- long has promoted getting a carbon cap-and-trade
bill through the House this year and to President Bush, who has opposed a
carbon mandate.

Boucher said, however, that he now lacks the "level of bipartisan
support" from the top Republican of the House Energy and Commerce Committee,
Joe Barton of Texas, "to do a good job of that at the moment."

Boucher said any climate legislation effort he leads must have bipartisan
support, reflect industry input and cover the economy in a carbon market aimed
at reducing GHG emissions between 60% and 80% by 2050. If, as projected,
carbon capture technologies are not widely available until 2025, coal-fired
power plants could meet emission targets through offsets, emission credits and
greater efficiency mechanisms, he said.

A more deliberate bill in this vein may face a "more challenging time" in
the next Congress, Boucher noted.

Boucher told reporters his committee may go as far as drafting a
"discussion measure" this year. As for next year, "undeniably there is
momentum to pass a climate change control program," Boucher said. "Undeniably,
regulation is coming."

--Cathy Cash, cathy_cash@platts.com