US Weather Commentary
Location: New York
Author:
Weather 2000, Inc.
Date: Friday, June 20, 2008
~ Entire Texas-to-Atlantic zone closing in on one of the Hottest June months in a generation.... {Dallas tallies 15 straight days breaking 95°F; Richmond & Raleigh tally 13 & 14 straight days breaking 90°F}
* "Cool Snap" more bark than
bite as NYC will only have merely 3 days of at least -2°F departures, and
eyes 90°F this Saturday.
* As was always the case: Atmosphere to form another Mid-West/Bermuda Ridge
couplet for warm final days of June + more Hot weather in July.
* As this month demonstrated: new Heat Waves often show up as benign/dilute
warm spells by models 1-2 weeks out, then revise exponentially.
~ Forecast Rumors, Mis-Facts & Spin could have damaging consequences.......
* Historic Cold Summer
Analogs of 2000 + 1976 + 1971 couldn't be more contrary to reality for June
and going forward. * "Locked-In, Multi-Week, Super-Trough" rhetoric winds up
having ground-truth of only a handful of cool days for populated East.
* Analogy for Mid-West to 2004's 'Year Without a Summer' is erroneous as
Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, et al. having warm/muggy June.
* "Cooler than 100°F" or "Not as Hot as Last Week" are unhelpful ways to
spin the fact that a cold outlook is turning warmer & warmer each day.
5 Weather Pressure Points
this Week:
There is going to be a fork in the road very soon where people sit down and
do the Energy-Weather math and realize that there is a large disconnect
between the prevailing spin and observed reality. On May 19th-20th New York
City was experiencing damp/raw high temperatures in the 50's, and we all see
how that had absolutely nothing to do with June. Please be aware and
cautious as you similarly draw up any expectations for July, and we've
located some potential pressure points this week:
1.) NWS/CPC Outlook Maps took decisive steps since last Friday (after models
were fixed) in putting a relatively succinct end to East-Half cool snap
which some had rumored would linger for several weeks and be the end of
Summer. The 6-10 Day outlooks always have a (lethargic) 3-5 Day bias, but
ALL Below Normal temperatures were removed in the 8-14 Day period along with
the addition of a clear Mid-Atlantic warm signal. More warmth will be
gradually added by the NWS/CPC outlooks for the Eastern U.S. as this week
progresses.
2.) The end of this week marks the first time in which the generic "11-15
Day" outlook period will include the 1st (partial) week of July. With models
gradually building back warmth, services will have a difficult time
defending calls of a historically cold July/Summer in store for -East-Half
of Nation.
3.) Thursday June 19th also
marks the release date of the monthly NOAA/CPC Seasonal Outlooks. While
these outlooks tend to be dilute, they have maintained their warmer-than
normal I-95/Northeast depiction in their July-September update. Note: "EC"
means NO FORECAST (aka 'anything can happen', it does NOT mean Near-Normal).
4.) Thursday June 19th finally marks the release of data taking into account
last week's high-population Heat Wave. This will be the first of many
quantitative wake-up calls that population-weighted warmth & apparent
temperature (humidity) will lead to anything but a very cold June-September.
5.) The next wave of conducive MJO pulses are starting to be picked up by
computer models late this week in their extended runs. Coupled with
anomalously warm Sea Temperatures across the entire Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico
and even Northern Caribbean now, speculation about fresh Tropical Storm
formation will likely bubble up.
_____
Enormous Summer temperature contrasts for South-Central/Gulf for 2008 vs.
2007 continue.....
Dallas
May 2007: only 1 day hitting (exactly) 90°F all month.
May 2008: 5 days reaching 95°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2007: 5 days hitting (exactly) 95°F .
June 1-18, 2008: 16 days hitting 95°F or hotter.
Houston
May 2007: only 4 days reaching 90°F all month.
May 2008: 14 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2007: 2 days hitting 95°F or hotter .
June 1-18, 2008: 12 days hitting 95°F or hotter (including 4 straight
breaking 98°F).
San Antonio
May 2007: ZERO days reaching even 90°F all month.
May 2008: 14 days reaching 95°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2007: ZERO days
reaching even 95°F the entire month.
June 1-18, 2008: 17 days reaching 95°F or hotter (including 4 straight
breaking 99°F).
El Paso
June 1-18, 2007: 9 days reaching 95°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2008: 16 days reaching 95°F or hotter (including 5 straight
breaking 103°F)..
Oklahoma City
May 2007: ZERO days reaching 90°F all month.
May 2008: 6 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
New Orleans
May 2007: only 1 day hitting (exactly) 90°F all month.
May 2008: 6 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2007: 7 days
reaching 90°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2008: 13 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
And extending across the Gulf of Mexico.......
Miami
May 2007: only 2 days hitting 90°F all month.
May 2008: 13 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2007: 6 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2008: 10 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
Tampa
June 1-18, 2007: 7 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
June 1-18, 2008: 17 days reaching 90°F or hotter.
_____
Severe Weather status:
~ Approximately 1,450 preliminary+confirmed Tornadoes have been tallied
through mid-June, coupled with 120 Fatalities. This has already made 2008
one of the deadliest and active Tornadic years in modern history, only
through 5 full months of the Calendar.
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