IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 984
(S08W80) is a small beta sunspot group rotating quietly around the
west limb. The rest of the solar disk and limb is very quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit briefly exceeded high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next
three days. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 7 March. A
recurring high speed coronal hole stream will rotate into a
geoeffective position on 8 March, and produce occasional active to
minor storm periods on 8 and 9 March.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 070
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 005/005-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/40
Minor storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/50/50
Minor storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/15/15
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales