Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Mar 09 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z

to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk is

spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue

at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels due to the

influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind

at the ACE spacecraft increased from 438 km/s to a maximum of 691

km/s at 09/2023Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to range from quiet to active levels with isolated minor

storm periods possible for the next three days (10 - 12 March), due

to the coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated major storm

conditions are possible at high latitudes during this period.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 09 Mar 070

Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 09 Mar 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 020/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 010/015-010/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/30/30

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 40/40/40

Minor storm 20/20/20

Major-severe storm 10/10/10