IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An emerging flux region was observed at N10E03.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels under the
continued influence of a high speed stream. Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE satellite ranged from 685 km/s near 2300Z to 569
km/s near 1700Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (14 March), quiet on day 2
(15 March) in response to a slackening solar wind. A return to
unsettled levels is anticipated on day 3 (16 March) with the
possibility of active periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 070
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 008/008-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/30
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/40
Minor storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales