IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 986
(S04W71) has decayed to a single alpha spot. A slow-moving coronal
mass ejection was observed off the west limb at 17/0830Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the forecast period
(18 - 20 March). The CME observed today is not expected to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 070
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales