IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 987
(S08E36) has grown in area and spot number over the summary period.
New Region 988 (S09E59) was numbered today. Both of these regions
are D-type spot groups with beta magnetic configurations. Multiple
B-class events have occurred from these regions, as well as a region
that is on the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a chance for isolated C-class
flares from Regions 987 and 988.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25
March). On days two and three (26 and 27 March) an increase to
unsettled to active levels is expected due to a coronal hole high
speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. During this
period isolated minor storm levels at middle latitudes and major
storm conditions at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 079
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 010/010-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/15
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales