Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Mar 27 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z

to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region's 987 (S08W05),

988 (S08E19), and 989 (S12E49) are all beta type groups and have not

produced any significant events during the last 24 hour period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from any of the

three numbered regions on the disk, and a very slight chance for an

M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm conditions due

to the continued influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed

stream. Solar wind speeds remain in excess of 650 km/s. The

greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high

levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of

active conditions for 28-29 March. Conditions are expected to

decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 30 March.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

Class M 15/15/15

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 27 Mar 085

Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 27 Mar 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 016/027

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 018/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 015/015-010/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/20/20

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 10/05/05